Some Reflections as We Turn the Corner… 

Six Things You Should Know

1. Equity Markets – were up this week with U.S. stocks (S&P 500) rallying +2.17% while international stocks added +1.78%
2. Fixed Income Markets – were down this week with investment grade bonds (AGG) decreasing -0.73% and high yield bonds (JNK) sliding -0.25%
3. Jobs Report – The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, well below expectations of 113,000. April and May figures also saw downward revisions that resulted in a net decline of 17,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% while average hourly earnings are up 3.5% year over year.
4. U.S./Iran Peace Talks – While talks are in place to formally end the conflict, Iran has reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While sanctions are currently lifted, there is still a lot to be done before an official resolution can be agreed. Further discussions are expected after the 4th of July weekend.
5. Cybersecurity Reminder- Scammers are increasingly using Remote Access Tools (RATs) along with phishing emails or texts to take control of devices like phones, tablets, and computers. Once installed, these tools can give cybercriminals access to sensitive information, including your Schwab accounts. These attacks can be hard to spot, so if something doesn’t feel right- like unusual account activity or suspicious messages- trust your instincts. If you sense suspicious activity, please call us immediately or report any concerns to Schwab at 800-515-2157. 
6. Key Insight – [VIDEO & ARTICLE] As we sit at the halfway point of 2026 we look back at all the headline fears that threatened to derail the bull market, how the market has fared and why, and what may lie ahead.

Insights for Investors

By Tim Mitrovich

Some Reflections as We Turn the Corner… 

After three big years in the equity markets many investors, including us, figured that 2026 was set to be an interesting year but one that we felt on the whole would be positive (see our commentary from 1/9/26). But as we shared in our piece from a few weeks ago entitled Lessons from the “Ring” a positive year on the whole doesn’t mean there won’t be challenges or “punches” that investors must absorb and overcome. 

In just the first six months of this year, we’ve seen some scary challengers step into the ring and some solid punches land, and yet, at the halfway point, the equity market has once again proved resilient.  

You’d be forgiven if you didn’t recall just how many headlines there have already been in 2026 that had various pundits calling for the onset of a brutal bear market. Here is a list of just some of the biggest: 

January 

• 10% drop in gold after new highs along with concerns around a connected global liquidity crisis 

• Greenland – Trump states intent to acquire Greenland leading to geopolitical turmoil 

• Fed Reserve Independence – ongoing lawsuit and announcement of Department of Justice inquiring into Fed Chair Jerome Powell 

• Tariff Turmoil – worries around pass through inflation and lack of clarity regarding legal status of tariffs

February

• AI Fears – reports around potential labor disruptions arise, along with heavy tech stock sell-off (particularly software companies) around fears of AI displacement 

March

• Escalation of US-Iran Conflict – rhetoric and eventual strikes send oil spiking to near $100 a barrel creating not only geopolitical concerns, but further inflation worries 

• Stagflation concerns begin to make headlines due to high oil prices and related inflation concerns and their additional knock-on effects of the economy 

Spring

• Interest Rate Concerns – given continued conflict, the market begins to move from pricing in Fed rate cuts to Fed rate hikes 

• US debt and fiscal-burden concerns add anxiety to elevated debt levels, with stories around a potential move of assets out of the US

June

• Hot Jobs Report – on June 5^th a hot jobs report causes the market to worry about the effects on Fed interest rate policy and push 10-year Treasury yields to over 4.5% leading to a pullback that wiped out $1.8-2 trillion in market value 

• Tech Valuation Concerns – the Mag 7 and tech sector faces renewed volatility around capex spending and valuations, with the NASDAQ falling roughly 3% on June 8^th.   Tech, led by chips, would shed over $1 trillion on June 23^rd as well 

• CPI – comes in at its highest rate in over three years in the June 10^th report 

• Fed Rate Hikes – after Warsh’s first meeting on June 17^th many pundits interpret the Fed’s new position as hawkish and price in more hikes roiling markets 

• Margin Debt Worries – the most recent report shows that margin debt has not only reached record levels, but did so on a massive jump in the most recent month (see chart below), this has traditionally led to market pullbacks/consolidations 

And yet, despite all of the above we sit here at the halfway point of 2026 with the S&P 500 up over 10.5% and NASDAQ up over 12.5%.  

This has left many investors asking…HOW?! 

As we discussed last week in our article The Cost of Emotionally Based Decision Making, yes, the above have real impacts on our world but ultimately the market moves on earnings and on that front the news has been quite good with earnings estimates for 2027 up almost $50 since the beginning of the year ($351 to $399), and even with the market up 10% an EPS multiple that has dropped from over 19x to just over 18x. 

This dichotomy reflects the truth behind legendary investor Benjamin Graham’s quote that, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” 

A hard to swallow a reality that for many, looks at the trying things of this world and wonders how the market can seem so indifferent to them. If you are curious to explore this further, you can read our piece entitled The Uncomfortable Truth of Mr. Market which goes into this more deeply. 

In Closing 

A big part of the battle of investing is truly learning how markets operate to better create one’s framework and consequently their decision-making. Much of the market’s movements are simply inexplicable over short periods of time and/or often seem counterintuitive to our own logic or sensibilities. 

But our feelings, our worldviews mean nothing to the market. 

With the CNN Fear and Greed Index sitting at just 34 it seems pre-mature to raise too many worries over the next few weeks, but on the other side of that is the margin debt levels discussed above that can signal near-term exhaustion. 

The real truth behind all of this is that trying to use headlines or data points to time markets with outsized “bets” is foolish. Rather, use history and current tensions to inspire the humility required to maintain a personalized and balanced approach to building your wealth over time. 

As always, we are here to walk that journey with you. 

Have a wonderful 4^th of July weekend! 

Tim and the team at TEN Capital 

Data, Just the Data

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment – rose for the second straight monthly to a level of 95.0 in June following April’s 5-year low. The reading beat expectations as the region continues to evaluate the economic impact of the Iran war.
• U.S. Consumer Sentiment – saw an upward revision to 49.5 in June, with cost-of-living concerns remaining top of mind for those surveyed.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index – fell slightly to 53.3 in June, but still remains firmly in expansionary territory.
• U.S. Jobless Claims – initial claims fell by 1,000 last week to 215,000 for a 5-week low. Continuing claims rose by 2,000 to 1,814,000, the highest in 3 months.