10 years of Living TEN’s Desired Legacy 

Six Things You Should Know

1. Equity Markets – were down this week with U.S. stocks (S&P 500) declining -2.24% while international stocks (EAFE) fell -1.79%. 
2. Fixed Income Markets – were mixed this week with investment grade bonds (AGG) increasing +0.44% and high yield bonds (JNK) slumping -0.18%. 
3. U.S. GDP – Q1 GDP growth saw an upward revision to +2.1% annualized, firmly beating consensus expectations of 1.6%. The improvement was largely led by upward revisions to net exports, inventories, and business investment.
4. Personal Incomes – May data showed personal incomes rose 0.7% in May and is now up 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing inflation. Once adjusted for inflation “real” consumption is up 2.1% from a year ago. 
5. Cybersecurity Reminder – Scammers are increasingly using Remote Access Tools (RATs) along with phishing emails or texts to take control of devices like phones, tablets, and computers. Once installed, these tools can give cybercriminals access to sensitive information, including your Schwab accounts. These attacks can be hard to spot, so if something doesn’t feel right- like unusual account activity or suspicious messages- trust your instincts. If you sense suspicious activity, please call us immediately or report any concerns to Schwab at 800-515-2157. 
6. Key Insight – [VIDEO] We talk often about working with clients to design and live their legacy today. We try to walk that talk as well. Among a number of community engagements, we are very proud of our partnership with Hoopfest which is in its 10^th year here in 2026. This week we share a very special story of someone to whom the efforts of Hoopfest have meant a great deal. [ARTICLE] In the last couple of weeks, animal spirits were running high with good news from the Middle East and the much-hyped SpaceX IPO, which had investors ramping their risk tolerance. Fast forward to this week and renewed inflation and bond yields fears have investors reversing course. We discuss these most recent “threats” along with a friendly reminder to stop deviating from the plan and keep a broader perspective. 

Insights for Investors

By Tim Mitrovich

The Cost of Emotionally Based Decision Making 

For 25 years, Vanguard has put out a study on the value of working with an advisor called their Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha (see here Value of an Advisor). In that study, they state that they have around up to a 2% improvement in performance due to behavioral coaching. Certainly, at times that can mean calming investors during particularly “scary” times in the market, but it can also mean cautioning them from chasing a hot stock market too. Perhaps most importantly, it’s about helping investors keep their goals top of mind and understanding the trade-offs that they may be unknowingly making with their decisions. 

Consider the recent SpaceX IPO. Stories abounded the last month regarding the retail investor appetite to buy the stock. We certainly saw a huge uptick in calls both in the buildup as well as immediate aftermath of the IPO.  

What we saw though in some cases emphasized the inconsistencies in many clients’ approaches left to their emotions/impulses. Some investors that sold off their diversified S&P 500 holding in April fearing a war-induced meltdown, now suddenly claimed to have the risk appetite to buy a single stock with no earnings as of yet. While others whose plans were locked in and provided exactly the lifestyle they wanted were tempted to trade that security for potential riches. 

Of course, as the stock began its over 30% decline from its peak to trade around the levels it began to trade at, the phones went silent. 

These impulses live within us all. As we shared before, the same fight or flight response we experience from physical threats arise in the forms of fear and greed as it relates to losing and making money.  

Investing doesn’t require us to change these impulses, but rather to control them through proper planning and partnership. 

Every time you find yourself saying “I just feel…” as a part of your investment explanation, it should remind you to stop and go back and walk through things in greater detail. It’s those feelings, those impulses that get investors in trouble over and over again. 

After over 30 years in the industry, I have seen this struggle play out over and over again for people and have felt the same tugs myself. The future is unknown and that is a challenge for us all.  

So, we reach for things we think we can control unaware of the more subjective costs. We trick ourselves into thinking “taking action” is always the right decision, and/or attempt to wish things into existence, refusing to accept the truth that the markets care nothing for your opinions or goals. 

In addition to our natural “wiring” which I mentioned above, I think this is subconsciously a protection mechanism for many as well. This approach enables some investors to avoid responsibility for their decision and/or financial situation and instead blame the market.  

Unfortunately, this is almost always a recipe for, at best, a sub-optimal outcome and, at worst, catastrophe. 

No, you can’t control markets, but you can build a plan that takes unpredictable markets into account and educate yourself on current markets not to predict them but rather with the goal of avoiding being surprised by events and making rash decisions. It may not be as thrilling as buying a chuck of SpaceX and hoping it “goes to the moon!” but it is a far more repeatable and dependable process. 

As the saying goes, “It’s time in the market, not timing the market” that produces actual results. 

About the Current Market 

In our Commentary Lessons from the Ring back on May 15^th, we reminded readers that there is always a new “challenger” for markets to overcome and those challengers often land some “punches” to markets. Those realities are not things investors need to fear or try to avoid in order to find success. In fact, trying to do so is more likely to hurt you than weathering the volatility. 

And so, just as the challenge of the War in Iran seemingly leaves the ring, in steps the fears of inflation/yields, and/or perhaps tech/semiconductor valuations, depending on the article your read, which has led to a pullback of around 3% from the June 15^th high. 

A. Yields and Inflation  

Traditionally there is a strong correlation between inflation and treasury yields with the two of them typically rising and falling together. However, that correlation has fallen apart of late leading many analysts to wonder which of them is actually reflecting what lies ahead. 

On the positive side, inflation actually seems stable to improving, and that was before the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and large decline in oil prices. As noted by TrendMacro, “Every single unconventional CPI measure decelerated in May, compared to April.” And even core CPI, “came in at just 0.16% for [May], or 2.53% at an annual rate.” (Source: TrendMacro, 6/10/26) 

As to the tension in inflation versus yields, Torsten Slok of Apollo noted the shift in narrative and tension stating, “The narrative in markets is changing from ’lower oil prices mean lower inflation’ to ’lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which means higher inflation.’” He also showed the chart highlighting the sudden break between the two. (Source: Apollo, 6/24/26)

This all takes on extra attention given the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh finally taking office. In his first meeting the Fed held rates, but futures markets are pricing in an increasing likelihood of rate hikes this year after beginning the year forecasting rate cuts. 

Of note from his first press conference was his comment noted by the team at Gavekal that “he prefers to focus on the ’left side of the decimal’—the two, not the zero, in a 2.0% inflation target. Taken literally, that suggests he favors an inflation target range of 2.0-2.9%. While that would not be a dramatic change, it would not be centered on 2%, implying a modest upward shift in the target, with a central tendency of roughly 2.5%.” (Source: Gavekal, 6/17/26) This statement coupled with his comments that he may be looking to different inflation indicators than recent Fed Chairs could indicate that he is less hawkish than markets initially feared. 

Regardless, as we’ve shared before, markets love to challenge new Fed Chairs which was noted recently by the team as Strategas who summarized it by saying “Historical equity market performance during the first year of a new Federal Reserve Chair suggests that drawdowns are common, with a median decline of approximately 17% across the Chairs shown below. The key question today is how policymakers would respond if a similar decline occurred. With more household wealth tied to equities than ever before and retirement savings increasingly dependent on 401(k) plans rather than employer-sponsored pensions, the economic and psychological impact of market drawdowns is significantly greater.” (Source: Strategas, 6/24/26, see chart below as well). 

B. Tech and Semiconductors 

Tech stocks, and in particular semiconductor stocks given the AI trade, have been a hot part of the stock market for some time. However, that leadership has gotten wobbly in recent weeks with semiconductors experiencing moves of +/- 5% eight times now in June alongside renewed volatility across tech. 

Is this the beginning of a great unraveling or merely a typical consolidation after such an incredible run?  

No one knows for sure of course, but the team at Fundstrat pointed to history as one reason for optimism stating, “We believe the pullback in [semiconductors] and [memory stocks] is very buyable. These dramatic 1D declines of 6% or more are seen in bull markets and not a sign of a market top. In fact, the forward returns 1M, 3M, and 6M later have >88% win-ratio and 1M returns more than recover the 1D losses since 2011.” (Source: Fundstrat, 6/24/26) 

More broadly, Tom Lee highlighted the continued positive backdrop to markets in general highlighting in the chart below both (a) that projected earnings per share for the S&P 500 in 2027 are $48 dollars higher than projected less than 6 months ago, and (b) that as a result, and despite the solid returns for equity markets in 2026, the forward looking price-to-earnings ratio is lower as well at just 18.4x. (Source: Fundstrat, 6/24/26) 

In Closing 

There are no short cuts in investing, nor is there a need to predict markets. Set your plan, understand that the likely adjustments you need to make along the way run counter to your emotions, as opposed to confirming them, and then give things time. 

Market volatility does not mean things are broken, but rather working, just as a functioning boxing match always has an opponent as well.  

Markets have their new challengers, but as Tom Lee points out above, the evidence at this time would seem to indicate they are once again up to the challenge regardless of any near-term moves. 

As always, we are here to help you and those you care about walk through these issues anytime. 

Have a wonderful weekend, 

Tim and the team at TEN Capital 

Data, Just the Data

• U.S. New Home Sales – fell 7.3% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted 580,000. Housing supply also increased to 496,000 units, equivalent to 10.3 months of supply for the highest level since 2009. 
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders – fell 4.5% in May to $332 billion. This marked the steepest monthly decline since June 2025. 
• U.S. Jobless Claims – initial claims fell by 12,000 to 215,000 last week, the lowest level in a month. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1,821,000. 
• Euro Area Manufacturing PMI – edged lower to 51.3 in June but still remained in expansionary territory for the fifth consecutive month.