Hard Data and Soft Data 

Five Things You Should Know

1. Equity Markets – Declined again this week with U.S. stocks (S&P 500) down -1.58% while international stocks (EAFE) dropped -4.48%.
2. Fixed Income Markets – Were mixed this week with investment grade bonds (AGG) declining -0.08% and high yield bonds (JNK) gaining +0.24%.
3. Fed Rates Unchanged – As expected the U.S. Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meeting this week. The topic of conversation continued to center around potential inflation concerns around tariffs. According to Fed Chair Powell “we have to learn more about tariffs. I think it’s hard to know with any confidence how we should react until we see the size of the effects.” 
4. Middle East Tensions – remain high amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran as the world’s powers work to broker a cease-fire. Oil prices have eased slightly as the U.S. has imposed new Iran-related sanctions that has led to speculation of an approach towards a negotiated agreement. 
5. Key Insight – [VIDEO & ARTICLE] Perception is not always reality. In 2025, understanding financial markets means recognizing the dynamic between perception and performance.

Insights for Investors

By Daryl Geffken

Hard Data and Soft Data 

Today, I want to talk about something fundamental to how we interpret and respond to financial markets— the difference between soft and hard data, and why this distinction is more relevant than ever in 2025. 

Let’s begin with simple definitions. 

Hard financial data refers to objective, measurable, and quantifiable economic indicators. These include statistics like GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment figures, interest rates, retail sales, industrial production, and corporate earnings. They are published by governments, central banks, and companies based on real economic activity. 

On the other hand, soft data captures sentiment, expectations, and intentions- what people say they plan to do, or how they feel about the economic environment. Think of consumer confidence indices, business sentiment surveys, and CEO outlook reports. 

One key difference is timing. 

Soft data is typically available sooner. For instance, business sentiment surveys can be released just days after month-end, giving an early signal of what’s coming. That makes soft data a leading indicator- it can be predictive, but also prone to noise and emotion. 

Hard data, in contrast, comes with a lag. Employment reports, inflation data, and earnings are more reliable, but they reflect what has already happened. That makes hard data more of a confirmation tool.  

So, think of it like this: Soft data is the economy’s mood. Hard data is the economy’s medical report. 

One tells you how people feel; the other tells you what’s actually going on. 

What’s changed in 2025 is the rise of real-time sentiment analysis using Al. Platforms now analyze millions of data points from social media, news, and corporate communications to generate real-time soft data. This has added nuance-but also complexity. 

For example, in 2025, we’re navigating a world shaped by the aftershocks of persistent inflation, evolving Al-driven productivity shifts, geopolitical tension, and rapid monetary policy adjustments (Tim has talked about the market whipsaw we’re experiencing). And in this environment, distinguishing between soft and hard data is crucial for interpreting what’s truly happening in the economy versus what people believe is happening. 

If we look at this chart from May 31 published by Goldman Sachs (see article here), we see that so far this year, “soft” survey data has deteriorated sharply while “hard” activity data has remained relatively resilient. Many soft data points-such as consumer sentiment and CEO confidence-dropped sharply due to uncertainty around interest rates and global supply chains. And headlines sounded the alarm about a possible recession. But hard data told a more complex story: U.S. GDP was still growing modestly, job growth remained positive, and consumer spending-though cooling-held firm. 

This widening gap has challenged investors’ ability to gauge the true underlying strength of the US economy.  

So, while people feel uneasy, the reality looks less dire. Investors who react solely to soft data might exit the market prematurely whereas those who balance both types of data can make more informed decisions. The question remains if activity will catch down to surveys or if sentiment will recalibrate. It may well be that as trade policy becomes more constructive, the drag on disposable income and financial conditions from tariffs could be smaller than expected, potentially reversing some of the recent pessimism in US surveys. This shows us the need to interpret both hard and soft data together is even more important.  

For investors, the lesson is this: 

• Don’t ignore the emotions. Soft data captures shifts in confidence that can lead to real-world behavior. 

• Don’t chase the hype. Hard data anchors us in reality. Our financial planning experience helps create a balanced approach to help mitigate the emotion.  

• And most importantly- don’t treat them as rivals. They are compliments. 

Smart analysts use soft data to anticipate trends, and hard data to validate them. That approach is more important now than ever as we deal with faster information flows, more volatile markets, and heightened global uncertainty.  

In 2025, understanding financial markets means recognizing the dynamic between perception and performance. Soft data tells us how people feel. Hard data tells us what they do. It’s the space between these two that holds the key to smart strategy and long-term results. 

As always, we are here for you and those you care about.  

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend, 

Daryl and the team at TEN Capital  

Data, Just the Data

• U.S. Retail Sales – fell 0.9% in May and worse than the expected 0.7% decline. This marks the biggest monthly decline in 4 months as consumers pulled back ahead of expected tariffs.
• U.S. Jobless Claims – fell by 5,000 last week to 245,000 initial claims and in line with expectations. Continuing claims came in at 1,945,000. 

• U.S. Housing Starts – rose 1.6% in April month-over-month to a seasonally-adjusted 1.361 million but below expectations. Single-family starts fell 2.1% while multi-unit starts rose 11.1%. 
• U.K. Retail Sales – fell 2.7% month-over-month in May and well below expectations of a 0.5% decline. This marked the steepest decline since December 2023.