7 (Possibly) Deadly Assumptions Investors Make

In this week’s video Tim covers 7 common assumptions he sees investors commonly make that can have dire consequences.

FIVE THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW

Equity Markets – fell this week with U.S. stocks (S&P 500) down -0.27% while international stocks (EAFE) were down -0.54%
Fixed Income Markets – also saw losses with investment grade bonds (AGG) down -0.77% while high yield bonds (JNK) fell -0.68%
Inflation Pressure Persists - the transitory crowd took a big hit this week with October data revealing that consumers prices have risen 6.2% from October of last year, the fast annual pace since 1990. With economists forecasting bigger inflation jumps in the coming months the pressure on the FED to act will continue to rise. President Biden has already expressed concern over rising prices and noted that reversing the current trend has become a “top priority”.
Fed Chair Decision – looks to be heating up with news that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the role of Federal Reserve Chair. She now becomes Jerome Powell’s most serious rival to date to gain nomination once Powell’s first term ends on Feb. 2^nd. While Powell was once viewed as a virtual lock for a second term, recent concerns around inflation and SEC trading violations from former Fed officials has seen the betting odds for a Powell nomination drop to 79%.
Key Insight – [VIDEO] In this week’s video Tim covers 7 common assumptions he sees investors commonly make that can have dire consequences. [ARTICLE] One deadly assumptions investors’ make is assuming that what has worked in the past will continue to work moving forward, e.g. the classic 60/40 portfolio. Below we share a great third-party article which again encourages investors to rethink their strategy.

INSIGHTS for INVESTORS

Intro

I hope you take the time to watch this week’s video where we share some common assumptions/misconceptions we see investors make all the time that can severely limit their potential in retirement. One of those deadly assumptions investors’ make is assuming that what has worked in the past will continue to work moving forward, e.g. the classic 60/40 portfolio. Perhaps that’s not an assumption you need to worry about (if you’re a client of TEN) but it likely is a costly mistake that many of those you care about are currently making.

Below is a great third-party article which again encourages investors to rethink that classic strategy with some very specific reasons and data as to why. Furthermore, the author makes a point to have investors focus on working with dedicated advisors (such as those here at our firm) that truly understand the importance of proper retirement income planning and the types of portfolio designs that will actually empower such plans.

Change can be scary for many, but in today’s low-yield and high-inflation environment with ever-expanding life expectancies, the thing people should be afraid of is what will happen if they fail to adapt their plan and portfolio to the above realities.

Have a wonderful weekend,

Tim and the team at TEN Capital

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How the 4% Rule Undermines Advisors and Clients

By Johnny Poulsen

Do-it-yourself investment tools that help individuals build their retirement savings are perceived threats to the advisory business model. But building a nest egg is not where advisors add their greatest value.

Rather, advisors should distinguish themselves by managing the distribution of those retirement savings. And the complexity of this function cannot be displaced by simple rules of thumb.

When building retirement savings, portfolio diversification and consistent account contributions will serve an individual well. Advisors play a key role in managing clients’ behavioral impulses so that they don’t veer from that model, but these basic guidelines work.

When it comes to drawing down a portfolio, however, simple rules are deeply flawed. Investors who choose to follow rules of thumb do so at their own peril.

Dissecting the 4% rule

The golden rule of withdrawal rates is, of course, the “4% rule.” It suggests a simple way to draw down your nest egg by withdrawing 4% during the first year. In following years, adjust that withdrawal amount in line with annual inflation, and you should be able to safely fund a 30-year retirement.

Though the research from the mid-1990s that gave rise to the 4% rule never suggested that everyone should follow it, the industry and popular media have touted the rule and turned it into conventional wisdom. Its simplicity encourages many retirement savers and retirees to take a DIY approach to wealth planning, letting that basic rule dictate their entire retirement path.

But the 4% rule often leaves considerable money on the table and robs individuals of the retirement they deserve. Retirement income planning requires sophistication. By accounting for the full range of inputs to a plan, advisors can help clients understand they may be better off than they thought and give them the confidence to enjoy retirement.

There are three primary reasons the 4% rule is misguided and should be done away with when it comes to retirement spending.

The first is longevity. An individual’s age and health deeply affect one’s withdrawal rate. With a shorter planning horizon, the risk of any withdrawal rate is lower. It may be perfectly safe to switch to a higher withdrawal rate at, say, age 80, than the rate someone is using at age 65.

The chart below puts the dynamic relationship between longevity and withdrawal rates in perspective. It shows the withdrawal rate that could be taken from a 60/40 stock and bond portfolio at various levels of “sustainability,” defined as the estimated chance that a portfolio would survive a given withdrawal plan to the end of, or past, the corresponding planning horizon.

Each sustainability line arcs upward. If an investor planned to retire at age 65 and felt comfortable knowing there was a 75% chance their nest egg would last 30 years, the investor could start retirement with a 5% withdrawal rate (already much higher than the 4% rule suggests). As the person ages and medical costs increase, the withdrawal rate could continue to rise without increasing the probability of running out of money.

Source: Author’s calculations from Society of Actuaries RP-2014 mortality tables.

A 4% rule overlooks the fact that investors can increase their withdrawal rate as they age, without taking on more risk. It leaves the investor less confident about what they can spend in retirement, and what income will be available when they get older.

The 4% rule overlooks realistic spending trends

Longevity isn’t the only reason the 4% rule fails investors. The rule also locks retirees into maintaining the same purchasing power through retirement. If a couple is spending $10,000/month in 2021 at age 65, the rule assumes they will also need $10,000/month, in today’s dollars, in 2041 at age 85.

But research on spending patterns in retirement does not support this assumption of flat, inflation-adjusted spending. Instead, retirees often spend the most early in retirement, followed by a long period of decreases in inflation-adjusted spending. Toward the end of life, some may increase their inflation-adjusted spending for medical reasons. This pattern, sometimes called the “retirement smile” or the “go-go”, “slow-go”, and “no-go” years, looks like this:

Source: Income Lab

Planning for realistic spending needs goes a long way toward providing more income to individuals in the early phase of retirement, when they need it most, without depriving them of the income they need later in life. But this requires moving beyond simplistic rules of thumb.

Non-portfolio cash flows add complexity to the distribution puzzle

Yet another flaw with the 4% rule is that it fails to acknowledge that non-portfolio cash flows are typically a major source of a retiree’s income. Social Security, pensions, rental properties, part-time jobs, house downsizing, inheritance, etc. make the actual cash flow picture for most families quite complex.

The chart below serves as a hypothetical example for a retired couple. It is a glimpse of what retirement often looks like. It assumes part-time work for five years, a pension, and two Social Security income streams (one at full retirement age and the other at age 70).

Source: Income Lab

At first, only portfolio withdrawals and part-time work will be used to fund retirement income, leading to an initial 9.8% withdrawal rate. As Mary’s Social Security and John’s pension kick in, annual planned withdrawals would decrease to approximately $79,000 and $63,000 respectively. After a brief increase in withdrawals when John stops working part time, his Social Security begins, and withdrawals reduce further to $46,000. Because of the retirement smile, withdrawals continue to decrease in real terms, going as low as $9,000/year later in the plan.

The complexity of these different cashflows makes following a withdrawal rate rule of thumb impossible.

Distribution planning: An advisor’s biggest value-add

Debates over whether DIY investment platforms enable an investor to plan retirement without an advisor often focus only on building the portfolio. That debate is misleading. While advisors add value in investing, the argument overlooks the advisor’s greatest value add: retirement income planning.

Income distribution is the most complex aspect of the retirement puzzle. The multiple variables that come with it require complex and dynamic planning, not rule-of-thumb thinking. For an advisor, this is one of the greatest ways to add value.

DATA, JUST THE DATA

Data points this week included:

U.S. Jobless Claims – continued to decline last week with 267,000 initial claims, the lowest reading since March of 2020. Continuing claims however did see a slight uptick from post-pandemic lows to 2.16 million claims.
U.K. Industrial Production – rose 2.9% year over year in September, slightly missing expectations for a 3.1% improvement. This was the smallest reading since March with slowed output in manufacturing and utilities providing the largest drag.
Eurozone Industrial Production – fell -0.2% in September from the month prior but better than market expectations for a -0.5% decline. Supply constraints and rising commodity prices weighed heaviest on the sector.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment – saw a surprisingly sharp fall in November to a reading of 66.8, the lowest tally since November of 2011. Unsurprisingly the largest concern facing consumers right now centers around the escalating inflation rate.
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism – fell for the second straight month in October to 98.2, the lowest reading in 7 months. Rising costs of materials put a damper on profits while 49% of firms are still reporting struggles to fill job openings.